General election complexion

It’s been a week since the primary, and judging by the many comments posted on this site, there’s been a lot of thought and analysis imparted about what happened and why. I don’t think I could say anything that hasn’t already been said. With that in mind, it’s time to turn our thoughts to what lies ahead.

There should be no debate the general election is a lot less interesting than what we saw Aug. 8. I see only two genuine horse races among the candidates — gubernatorial and U.S. senatorial. Both of those are too close to call now.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is facing a masterful campaign of marketing, advertising and propaganda. Self-financed billionaire Dick DeVos likely will break all records for campaign spending because he simply has the war chest to handle it. And his ads, which besides the religious right's army of sheep (who flock to the polls to vote as they are told) are the deciders for the less than attentive and educated electorate (which sadly seem to constitute a majority in American electoral politics), have been superb in identifying the problems without actually offering any substantial ideas about how to solve them. DeVos is great at telling how horrible things are without giving us a clue about how he plans to do any better- a highly dubious proposition for his election prospects since his solutions are more of what ailes us in the form of more tax cuts, more deregulation and more catering to a radical fringe that Lansing impose moral guidelines on the citizens of Michigan. DeVos also missed a golden opportunity by picking a uninspired choice for Lt. Governor which will score him few points outside of the battleground of Oakland County- which is prime real estate but has been trending Democratic and probably won't reverse that trend in a mid-term Congressional race year that could well be defined as a referendum on the policies of George W. Bush. DeVos could have picked Keith Butler and made a play at suppressing Granholm's support in Detroit- but either DeVos' people decided a charismatic second choice might upstage the former Amway executive or else they figured throwing a black Republican on the ticket could actually provoke the black vote into supporting Granholm and pushing her to victory (a third choice would be they know of some baggage that might hurt the campaign but I have nothing to support that theory).

U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, another Democrat, defeated Satan's spawn- Spencer Abraham- six years ago and now defends her seat from the position of incumbency. Stabenow has been an effective legislator, crafting an agenda based on bread and butter issues to separate herself from the senior Senator from Michigan, Carl Levin- who has made a career as a voice of reason on the Armed Services Committee and is seen as one of the Democrats most solid voices on foreign affairs. Stabenow has banked a considerable war chest and and has kept close enough to the middle that her opponent will have a hard time defining her as too liberal for Michigan's voters- especially at a time when most voters are telling pollsters they are disgusted with the way the GOP President and Congress are running/ruining the country. Stabenow's biggest problem might be that, while she has been on the right side of voting against the bungled war in Iraq, she has occasionally been a disappointment with her support of the bankruptcy bill and support of Condi Rice for Secretary of State- things which have likely weakened her support among the Democratic base she'll need to win re-election. It’s Debbie’s race to lose given the current political climate and her massive head start in fundraising. Bouchard's biggest advantage is that his primary race against Keith Butler was not vicious and he came away with little damage- however the easy primary victory could also be a boon to the Stabenow campaign by keeping the race below the radar of most voters, many of whom still have no idea who Mike Bouchard is which will force him to spend a lot of money just to raise his name ID. Stabenow's campaign seems well prepared for a tough battle since she has already shown a willingness to hit hard and pick the right spots to go after- the day after the primary results were announced she was swinging away on trade deals and health care and trying to put the race on her terms. Perhaps she should give Granholm a few pointers on strategy.

Closer to home, I see a lot of yawners ahead where the incumbents and "anointed" steamroll to yet another victory for the status quo despite massive voter outrage at the current state of affairs. A preview:
• State Senate, 24th District — Patty Birkholz right now is the No. 2 honcho in Lansing, right behind the term limited Ken Sikkema. Native son Terry Geiger beat her up pretty badly in Barry County in the GOP primary four years ago, by better than 2-to-1, but “Pincushion Patty” returned the favor in Eaton and Allegan counties. Democratic challenger Suzzette Roysten of Charlotte will need a near-miracle to pull off an upset. She has very little help. The Democratic Party in Allegan County is a joke that isn’t funny, while Barry County’s party is active but with a poor track record in recent elections. Suzzette apparently is enthusiastic, has union support and she likes to tell everybody she’s a hunter (remember David Brinkert’s success with that in 2004?). She certainly seems willing to give a run and for that she gets my enthusiastic support.
• State Representative, 87th District — Brian Calley, the Pride of Portland, took advantage of privileges of money and connections and knocking on a lot of doors in an energetic campaign that made all the right moves. A slick and capable politician, he’ll be nearly impossible to defeat in November. There likely aren’t enough disgruntled Republicans, plus active and committed Democrats to take him out. Nice guy Doug Kalnbach, who like DeVos doesn’t believe he should have to wear a motorcycle helmet, stands about as much chance of winning this one as Roysten does against Birkholz. Give them both a glad hand for being willing to take the time and effort and spend the money for a virtually hopeless cause. Kalnbach will play the working man motif with mostly little effect barring a political earthquake.
• Barry County Board of Commissioners — Third, Fourth and Sixth districts.
Democrats Mike Lewis in the Third and Brinkert in the Sixth both have an outside shot, with the emphasis on the “outside.” Lewis has the better demographics with a fair number of registered Democrats in Hope Township (almost 45%) and not too long ago the Rutland Township Board was dominated by Boll Weevil-style Democrats. But Lewis is a virtual unknown and he’s got a lot of tough work ahead of him. His recent postings here indicate a serious candidate determined to get his message out which is half the battle. We've seen how well the 911 issue was used to tap into voter anger in the primary and if played correctly it could well propel Lewis to victory over Keith Ferris who many see as part of the James-Bailey nexus. This is a sleeper race that could end up in the forefront in the way that the Pratt-Evans race shook the community when Evans upset the incumbent Prosecutor.

Brinkert, a local business owner, is helped by Orangeville Township’s traditional Dem leanings, but Republican Mark Englerth boasts that he knocked on every door in Orangeville on the road to victory last week over Chairmarm Clare Tripp. Yankee Springs Township is as about as solidly Republican as any municipality in Barry County. Some say Englerth’s sometimes abrasive style is a big turnoff to some voters and the Tripp supporters will never cast their lots with him. Doubtful- most will likely vote straight Republican on Nov. 7 or just avoid filling out the bubble for the county board race. Brinkert's a good guy and has likely learned a lot since his race against Gary Newell for State Rep. as through his involvement with the county Democratic Party but the playing field is tilted in the favor of the GOP and Mark has cast himself in the mold of the people's hero in his opposition to the Charlton Park millages. Many are expecting a race here but I'm not convinced yet it will be very close unless Brinkert can find an angle to woo the voters who are scared of the "radical" Mark Englerth. Then again, most of those voters probably think Brinkert is just as radical simply for being a Democrat.

The Fourth District, despite grumblings on the street that incumbent Republican Hoot Gibson has been waffling on the issues, will see no change. Democrat John Loftus will extend his record losing streak that stretches back to the early 1990s when he was Bob Wenger’s electoral plaything. Hoot has very little, if anything to fear.

The state-wide ballot issues and the attorney general and secretary of state races are still works in progress, so I’ll save my commentary on them for later.