The original blog covering Barry County and West Michigan's political scene.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Read more about Anger
West Michigan Rising recently ran a profile of the Democratic candidate for Barry County Drain Commissioner, Rose Anger. Part of the article also looks at the lack of Democrats running for office in Barry County. Take a look.
Unless Anger can break through in the straight-ticket GOP areas, I think she garners 45-48% of the vote. It might of been within reach if one of the Marks had gotten through, but I think that 48% will be the extent of her range in Barry County.
I see her campaign platform resembling Mary Powers in Kzoo. Unlike Kzoo, she doesn't have the split ticketers, nor a strong Democratic base to draw from. Not to mention Mary Powers only lasted 1 term in office.
The last count-wide Democrat to obtain a significant margin was Doherty when he ran for Prosecutor (45%). She may get a slight boost from the increased Democratic Presidential attention, but with no other Democrats near her place on the ballot, it's going to be a tough slog.
45% is what Dems do in this county when they have a credible candidate. Anger is a credible candidate. I don't think 45-48% is cause to pop open the champagne corks and celebrate, nor does it mean an end to the GOP hegemony.
Based on money raised and effort, I may revise that percentage down, if I do not see either pick up. There are three things that go against Anger in this election: 1) Ballot position. She got 300 less than Levin in the Primary. That shows apathy and laziness amongst the electorate. 2) A qualified GOP candidate is on the ballot. I may have gone higher on Anger's percentage if it was one of the Marks, but Yarger is a competent candidate. I did factor in the "non-incumbency" factor though. 3) She's a woman. In recent elections in Barry County (Geiger/Birkholz, Fekkes/Doherty, Pratt/Evans), the voters have gone for the male candidates. While I tend to chalk this up more to how much better the men ran against the women candidates(door-to-door, mailings, media concentration, etc.), a case can be made for a gender bias in this county.
The case where this bias works in reverse is in the clerk/register/treasurer races where it is seen as "women's work".
I am being generous now due to the Presidential race. If Anger doesn't start proving herself on the pavement within the next month, my estimate will be revised down.
Backed up by significant amounts of scientific sampling of eligible voters recently surveyed (two coffee shops and a fish wrapper).
After watching Mrs. Obama last night, even Republican women will be supporting every Democrat that has the courage to run for office. Add to the female vote the half dozen male Democrats that can still get up from their Lazy-Boy and you get 56%.
(sample doesn't include whack-jobs, which may reduce it to 51%)
Hitting the pavement probably won't be happening for either DC candidate...both are full time employees at their respective jobs.
as for point #1 Jay... it seems the local dems were encouraging crossover voting to the rep side of the primary ticket in all precincts where there were no dem races in the primary.
point #2... Yarger is qualified ... thank GOD! Although I think you are shorting Doster a bit on that one. McKelvey was qualified too, but didn't exactly make a good case for himself.
point #3 ... who knows? I think being pregnant and due around Jan 2008 really hurt Kerri Selleck. She should have kept that under wraps in my opinion. Anger brought her newborn baby at the DC debate, who knows if that is a positive or a negative.
Tom Evans worked his hiney off for his current position. He was able to table his private practice to agressively campaign, Pratt on the other hand had to run the prosecutor's office. The same agressive campaigning is what got Mark Whitney such a large share of the County Clerk primary even though he was woefully underqualified. Both of these gentleman had the luxury of not having a day job.
on #1: One could not split one's ticket in the Primary. Were there cross-overs that only voted in the competitive Sheriff/DC/ and Prosecutor/Clerk races? Sure, but it didn't seem to affect any of those races except Clerk. A 300 vote drop off is significant, and Anger will suffer because there aren't Democrats near her ballot position.
on #2: Maybe I am shorting Doster on qualifications, but on personality, you'd have folks running in droves to vote for Anger if Mark was elected. It's going to be hard for Anger to make a case against Yarger on this point.
on #3: While I tend to qualify my answer on this point, there is a measurable trend. Selleck's pregnancy, like Vlietstra's pregnancy probably soured voters to their campaigns. I know JNP firmly believes there is a gender bias in the county which led to her defeat.
JNP's defeat had more to do with being married to a cop and suffering from the anger of those who wanted something done about 911. I think Vlietstra seemd too unseasoned when she ran for State Rep. She'd have been better off going after the county clerk job first or trying for a commissioner's seat. While I don't there's gender bias I think there's always dozens of factors that contribute, including what might be the biggest and that is simply knowing more people- in a rural area where candidates can't reach most people it helps to just already know the most voters. This is one reason why those from the biggest churches tend to well over and over again.
The dems in question didn't attempt to split their ticket...they defected wholly over to the Rep Primary. I don't know how well organized it was, but it was encouraged by a number of the more vocal dems. (pissing off the local Reps I'm sure)
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10 comments:
Copy this:
roseanger@sbcglobal.net
and request a yard sign.
Do you think that WMR will bother to distinguish between the old, tired and worn out
Barry County Democrats (who can be expected to do nothing to help their only courageous representative financially or otherwise)
and the new, tired and worn out
Barry County
Progressive
Democrats
(who can be expected to do nothing to help their only courageous representative financially or otherwise)?
Copy this:
http://electanger.org
Unless Anger can break through in the straight-ticket GOP areas, I think she garners 45-48% of the vote. It might of been within reach if one of the Marks had gotten through, but I think that 48% will be the extent of her range in Barry County.
I see her campaign platform resembling Mary Powers in Kzoo. Unlike Kzoo, she doesn't have the split ticketers, nor a strong Democratic base to draw from. Not to mention Mary Powers only lasted 1 term in office.
The last count-wide Democrat to obtain a significant margin was Doherty when he ran for Prosecutor (45%). She may get a slight boost from the increased Democratic Presidential attention, but with no other Democrats near her place on the ballot, it's going to be a tough slog.
45-48% would be an awesome start to breaking a Rep monopoly in the county.
MW:
45% is what Dems do in this county when they have a credible candidate. Anger is a credible candidate. I don't think 45-48% is cause to pop open the champagne corks and celebrate, nor does it mean an end to the GOP hegemony.
Based on money raised and effort, I may revise that percentage down, if I do not see either pick up. There are three things that go against Anger in this election: 1) Ballot position. She got 300 less than Levin in the Primary. That shows apathy and laziness amongst the electorate. 2) A qualified GOP candidate is on the ballot. I may have gone higher on Anger's percentage if it was one of the Marks, but Yarger is a competent candidate. I did factor in the "non-incumbency" factor though. 3) She's a woman. In recent elections in Barry County (Geiger/Birkholz, Fekkes/Doherty, Pratt/Evans), the voters have gone for the male candidates. While I tend to chalk this up more to how much better the men ran against the women candidates(door-to-door, mailings, media concentration, etc.), a case can be made for a gender bias in this county.
The case where this bias works in reverse is in the clerk/register/treasurer races where it is seen as "women's work".
I am being generous now due to the Presidential race. If Anger doesn't start proving herself on the pavement within the next month, my estimate will be revised down.
Spoken like a true expert.
Backed up by significant amounts of scientific sampling of eligible voters recently surveyed (two coffee shops and a fish wrapper).
After watching Mrs. Obama last night, even Republican women will be supporting every Democrat that has the courage to run for office.
Add to the female vote the half dozen male Democrats that can still get up from their Lazy-Boy and you get 56%.
(sample doesn't include whack-jobs, which may reduce it to 51%)
Hitting the pavement probably won't be happening for either DC candidate...both are full time employees at their respective jobs.
as for point #1 Jay... it seems the local dems were encouraging crossover voting to the rep side of the primary ticket in all precincts where there were no dem races in the primary.
point #2... Yarger is qualified ... thank GOD! Although I think you are shorting Doster a bit on that one. McKelvey was qualified too, but didn't exactly make a good case for himself.
point #3 ... who knows? I think being pregnant and due around Jan 2008 really hurt Kerri Selleck. She should have kept that under wraps in my opinion. Anger brought her newborn baby at the DC debate, who knows if that is a positive or a negative.
Tom Evans worked his hiney off for his current position. He was able to table his private practice to agressively campaign, Pratt on the other hand had to run the prosecutor's office. The same agressive campaigning is what got Mark Whitney such a large share of the County Clerk primary even though he was woefully underqualified. Both of these gentleman had the luxury of not having a day job.
MW:
on #1: One could not split one's ticket in the Primary. Were there cross-overs that only voted in the competitive Sheriff/DC/ and Prosecutor/Clerk races? Sure, but it didn't seem to affect any of those races except Clerk. A 300 vote drop off is significant, and Anger will suffer because there aren't Democrats near her ballot position.
on #2: Maybe I am shorting Doster on qualifications, but on personality, you'd have folks running in droves to vote for Anger if Mark was elected. It's going to be hard for Anger to make a case against Yarger on this point.
on #3: While I tend to qualify my answer on this point, there is a measurable trend. Selleck's pregnancy, like Vlietstra's pregnancy probably soured voters to their campaigns. I know JNP firmly believes there is a gender bias in the county which led to her defeat.
JNP's defeat had more to do with being married to a cop and suffering from the anger of those who wanted something done about 911. I think Vlietstra seemd too unseasoned when she ran for State Rep. She'd have been better off going after the county clerk job first or trying for a commissioner's seat. While I don't there's gender bias I think there's always dozens of factors that contribute, including what might be the biggest and that is simply knowing more people- in a rural area where candidates can't reach most people it helps to just already know the most voters. This is one reason why those from the biggest churches tend to well over and over again.
The dems in question didn't attempt to split their ticket...they defected wholly over to the Rep Primary. I don't know how well organized it was, but it was encouraged by a number of the more vocal dems. (pissing off the local Reps I'm sure)
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