This is a quick update on my earlier posting about the 87th state rep race. It seems like all candidates are in the fight now as Brian Reynolds (my pick for the 87th in case you hadn't heard) put his signs up almost as I wrote my original post and I have now seen one sign for Brian "Re-Elect Gary Newell" Calley on M43 towards Delton, a couple for Jim "King James" Bailey around Hastings and a Wade Trombley sign that seems to hover over the headquarters of J-Ad Graphics just north of Hastings as if to keep watch over Fred Jacobs and David T. Young. Feel free to post your campaign sign sightings and where you saw them so those of us who haven't been getting out as much we'd like can figure out if any candidate is getting a groundswell of support or littering vacant lots or anything that can keep us busy until the forums start later this month.
Speaking of which, I was asked to clarify that the forum for the County Prosecutor race is June 22nd, at 7pm at the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Hall. It seems one of the candidates was unable to make the original date of the 29th so please mark your calendar or Palm Pilot accordingly. Also please consider showing up!
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36 comments:
I think we should have a majority vote to excuse the one who couldn't show up. 22nd is bad for me, but will be there a little late, I hope!
You can believe me when I say I am still waiting for the chartreuse, flower power,Hast-ashBarry signs to pop up from the J.N.P. camp, but regretfully none have been sighted thus far!
Maybe she doesn't like hippies after all.
Haven't seen any Tom Lower signs.
Can't see the small Reynolds ones.
Trombley: He seems to have copied Susan Vlietstra's design. He's also putting them up in right-of-ways. Is he getting permission from the land owners? Susan has gotten good distribution.
Calley still dominates in Ionia.
Bailey: Can he get out of Hastings?
Calley signs pretty much control Ionia county and dominate the 5th district where he's been working on door to door. He says that he's done 2,000 door to door visits and plans on 7,000. He's actually taken 2 months off of work to accomplish this. Does anyone else want it that much?
...deep tonsils
dude..you gave me a picture of Calley that I will have a hard time erasing...lol
JNP had to reschedule. Is this a Fekkes-esque tactic? How's Julie's tax lien situation?
JNP had to get the debate in before her drug traffiker got out of jail, lol. I wonder if those that got probation will show up to support her.
I overheard that JNP would be out of town on the 27th and Brinkert told her it was no problem. people reschedule stuff all the time as long as every body shows up there is no problem. Fekkes just wasn't going to come. Stephanie had problems with not knowing what the questions would be before hand, if I remember correctly.
LOL, who took the bar exam for her????
The green and white reynolds signs with small print are a waste of money. Vliestra was clueless at the unicam forum where she contributed nothing and acted ditzy, but she wins the visible sign contest. Signage aside, Calley might have some fast talking to do to explain why he's avoided paying property tax by claiming 100% homestead on two different properties (at a loss to Ionia school districts). Sounds like Clare Tripp in the BC county commissioner race might have similar issues. Are you sure Calley and Clare are not homesteading together? Hmmm. Maybe Clare's is one of those 7000 houses Calley visits, and visits, and visits.... Finally, any person with 12 kids loses my vote from the get-go (hint=Jim Bailey). If his kids are his contribution to the world, then someone please tell him 6 billion miracles is enough. His sexual urges have cost taxpayers plenty over the years in schooling, infrastructure cost, and the tax deductions he's gotten for fathering a football team. I can hardly wait to find out about the other candidates. Though, rumor has it that Dem 87th dist candidate Kalmbach is going to go to Harley colored signs (black/orange or black/yellow) or some such terrible combination like that. It will be confused with the equally atrocious black on yellow SPAUL-DING real estate signs that are ineffective. Here's some advice on the signs that is too late for most: Keep it simple, stupid!
I hear JNP is going on vacation for two weeks. Going on vacation during prime campaign season. Is she crazy? Her laissez-faire attitude is giving this race to Tom.
Wade,
I perceive you as the epitome of a politician. Why run away from what you are? ;)
Hey you know anonymous, anonymous, anonymous, anonymous, and ,anonymous, you can just register a made up name on blogspot?
It sure would be easier to respond to particular posts.
HINT: Get an email account at Yahoo, Hotmail...etc, and use that!
Just a couple of minutes, and we (me) can direct our responses (scorn) to you personally!
only...um? ... we still don't know who you are! That is unless you call yourself: Jimbowith23children@yahoo.com!
Yes, please take Agnosticrat's advice! (read his blog too!) In case you didn't know that's not his/her real name. It helps to give you an identity instead of being one of 20 anonymous people posting here. We can also respond to you easier instead of calling you anonymous poster #5. I'm real close to shutting down the anonymous comments which is something Blogger gives me the option to do if I choose. It's cases like Anonymous #11 throwing his/her little jab at Trombley with nothing to support it that pushes me even closer. I have left anonymous posting up just because some people only comment once and it's not worth it to sign up for yet another site- but I know there are a couple of you making repeated postings under the anonymous label that are either too lazy to sign up or are using the anonymous label to hide behind when throwing you jabs at Nakfoor-Pratt, Trombley, etc. It's not like you have to use your real name, but at least give us an identity so we can tell you from the others when repsonding (or scorning).
And Anonymous #4, Deep Tonsils is his "name" not an indication of how Calley picks up support. I mean, maybe that's how he does it but that's not what Deep Tonsils was implying ; )
JNP another vacation? Didn't she just go to the Daytona hogg ride a couple months ago? I'm still undecided, but I'm starting to see a track record of constant plea bargaining again. Seems "clean my desk off" is the neat and tidy tone she is setting for the Office. Not being there, i.e. vacations, etc., seems like the business of old! Not working as the Pharmacy Clerk at any local pharmacies is she?????
After being "attacked" a number of times the anonymous seemed the safest course of action to prevent repercussions for those around me. Between blogs sometimes even the braindead can put two and two together! May come out to five for them, but close enough for government work someone anonymous once said!
Agitater, we all know which posts belong to you. They are filled with ????????? after ????????
And why are you keeping such close tabs on JNP and not Tom as well? What has he done since "leaving" the prosecutors office?
Haven't heard anything about Tom to comment????????? Put it on here and I will??????? Still undecided on which one to vote for?????? Neither one has a Court track record to evaluate??????? There, one on Tom??????? Both nice, but which is nicer or more nice??????????? Wish I had more than nice to vote on???????
While not a technophobe, i tried to sign up with a username but the site kept giving me errors. i tried it months ago and it didnt work then either. The host should either give better instruction or fix the #$%^ thing otherwise, I'm outta here. This is only my second anon post so what's the excuse of the other anons
I hope you can figure the problem out. Point-counterpoint makes a discussion. What anonymous #11 is doing is a drive bye assualt.
Unfortunately I don't see an answer in signing the end of your post either, for the following reason.
signed:
-George W. Bush
fearless leader of the free world!
Wow. I knew Union Bank and the DeVos campaign were regular readers of the blog as well as a certain township office in the Middleville area, but now we have our Dear Leader on board too!
Thanks for reading and posting. If you have trouble you can keep posting anonymously, though you can always "sign" your comments ala President GW Bush.
- Pol Watcher, Watcher of Politicians
Oh, by the way, Happy Father's Day to you guys out there lucky enough to be one!
I did find my Father at the address listed on his drivers license and voter registration card!
You can call be Johnson!
Love how Wade has qualified his answer on his erection of signs..."...get permission for most of our signs." What a politician way of answering. Where is this no-mans land? A parallel dimension? Switzerland?
Wade, great invention out there called a plat map book. I find it very useful when I put up signs.
Seeing a lot of those Bailey Signs in the last few days. Where the hell did that come from? The guy's just as big as ever.
Love him or hate him, he doesn't back down. And I really think he's mean enough to get a few things done. We need to pick someone from Barry County.
Not saying I'm a big fan of the guy all the time, but we need to pick someone. Or we'll be forever holding our PIECE.
We're just dividing ourselves now. Too many little candidates that, although I wish some could, will never make it. But they are stealing votes from Barry County and we'll lose this to 6 more years of Battling PAC's and designer suits.
Call me Timmy
Good point Timmy! If Johnson and Sixberry would have joined forces we wouldn't have had DeBoer and possibly that could have led to no Newell?
Nelson C
Choc Cherry: Your "WHY" is the biggest question. You may be right, she may really support Julie. I was really looking forward to at least 4 candidates or more! Why these things are being said and done is a result of year after year of the Hastings "Bunch" "Clique" "Rascals", whatever you want to call them, piling it on the "little guys and gals," sticking it to us every chance they get. We're tired of it and especially of their incompetence.
What you're seeing is a backlash of the PEOPLE! Everything is being questioned. It should be OUR County, not a County ruled by a few. Sure, rumors may prove to be false (most don't with these discharged batteries)! They're so open with disrespect for us they do things right in our faces and most of the electorate just take it!
It is time to stop it, NOW! I wish Pol Watcher would reconsider no anons. Some of these citizens actually fear the morons of Barry County (sounds like a good title for a country song?). They do come after you!
Mistakes happen, correct it and go on. Seems like there were alot of good chats going on here and many good and accurate analysis of candidates by the Pol. One mistake, no big deal. Give in and "they" will think they have you on the run.
Well, I'm standing right here, don't intend to run, come and get me!
Dear Mr. "Tromweiler," You are mistaken as to my identity- as is everyone was has wagered a guess- I'm not a "known" person, just a poor working stiff who wants to help inform people. And your comments are being deleted because they have nothing to do with ISSUES in POLITICS. If you can't understand that then I guess I'll be busy deleting your slimy comments at least until I finally pull the plug and make it so no one can comment without being pre-approved by me. Until your comments have merit, expect them to get deleted. And if you keep it up, expect to not be able to make ANY comments in the future.
Got to respond Choc Cherry. Think Julie is a very nice lady, Tom is nice man. I haven't decided who I will vote for. Not sure which comments I have made which make you say what you did? The one about Fred Jacobs concerned the previous prosecutor, not Julie! I don't believe I have commented about any particular action Julie has taken! Julie has not crossed my path as of yet. I do admit to thinking we would have more candidates for the job. Nice (both are)is hard to be the sole criteria to measure prosecutorial abilities. I have talked to sources I respect and trust, it seems to be pretty equal, 50-50, on both being good in Court. What goes to Court in Barry County is a bigger problem than who gets the job of not taking it to Court!
Please refresh my memory on negative Julie comments, I can't think of any. Don't have on either candidate! Sorry, must be confused with George Clooney again!
I think agitator she is citing the anon. poster on your blog that ranted on the Wymer case.
While I have made "comments" on Julie, I haven't been the biggest basher of hers. I do find her to be (and her campaign) to be cast in the same mold of Fekkes. I too think she has made some real blunders in her early career as BC's chief law offical.
I am privy to her career in Allegan, and it's no real surprise that she has made the blunders she has.
Does that put me firmly in Tom's camp? Hardly. I am disappointed at the inaccuracies JNP backers have made against Tom. (I do hope they come to light at the forum.) I am concerned about some associations he has made, but I can say the same for Julie.
Neither candidate shines through for me like the Probate Judge Race. I was a Doherty person in '04. Fekkes' refusal to come clean sealed the deal for me.
Despite my past disdain for Fekkes, I am still torn.
I do not believe that the so-called "rumors and innuendo" are such. I went to the clerk's office and studied the file referenced. Julie's office dropped the ball, and the blame falls squarely with her.
Does this matter allow me to cross the threshold firmly into Tom's camp? Not yet. I am waiting for Thursday to see.
On a light hearted note...
I did a parody of an old Star Wars SNL Parody. I gleaned comments from the blog site about the inundation of signs in our area...all comparisons are made in jest.
[Done in the Bill Murray SNL style]
Sign wars...
Nothing but sign wars...
Bombastic col-ors
on the highways...
How many of signs-
can you put in ^a yard?
It's all about Sign Wars...
Nothing but Sign wars
Fabulous Sign Wars--don't you see?
There's Julie, pretty Julie...
Hard sign to se-e going 55-e
Vliet-stra,
Vlietstra and Trom-bley
Loooking similar-ly
Especially to dogs that wee....
(I'll leave them be....)
Bail-ey, King Bail-ey
Darth Vader of Hastings...
He thinks he has this empire,
but all he does inspire --is for people to get higher
Set the people free...
Rey-nolds, the Ewok Rey-nolds
Tiny green sign he has...
dancing among the trees.
Cal-ley, Sith lord of Ion-ia
Will kiss your baby and fool ya
As he steals your money…
Sign wars...
Nothing but sign wars...
Bombastic col-ors
on the highways...
How many of signs-
can you put in ^a yard?
It's all about Sign Wars...
Nothing but Sign wars
Fabulous Sign Wars--don't you see?
LOL, if that's so, give um hell Barb!
I like Barb more and more every day. One big reason is you Timmy! She got to you, LOL. Gotta run, the citizens are closing in on us! LOL
Dearest Timmy,
If Big Bad Jim Bailey couldn't pull out a win against Gary Newell, then how the hell can he win a 5-way race when he's been out of action for a couple of years?!! Rumors are Bailey think he's going to pull all the votes he got last time plus more. He's DREAMING if he thinks that. Vlietstra will surely cut into his voting block aaboth are politically close to Calley and will be vying for the same voters.
Meanwhile Trombley will likely cancel Brian Reynolds other out since Trombley seems to be campaigning on a "I'm just like him only more clean shaven" philosophy that echoes Reynolds in a way that has made some people question to me if he was set up to steal votes from Reynolds and cancel him out. Some people seem worried all the Ionia voters are lining up behind Calley but from what I hear there's a lot of apathy and anger towards Calley on his home turf and the voters there are looking for someone else. Don't forget that Calley's been a county commissioner and has made his share of enemies. The Ionia voters just might be sick of Newell too and looking for a maverick who might actually represent them in Lansing instead of looking after the concerns of the insurance and medical lobbies.
I think that this race is wide-open with Calley having an obvious advantage of being the only Ionia player in the crowded field and having the backing of the big money crowd that usually gets to buy elections, but surely Calley has to wonder if the Right to Life and other radical right wing voters in the party won't be splitting their votes amongst the other crazies in the field. It's going to be a fun wun to sit back and watch. I've got the popcorn popped...
Pol--
What you have said echoes my exact analysis. I'd only add that the only drain on Calley (if you can call it that) is Lower. I guess he's doing the stealth campaign from the Catholic pews in the District. His effect on Calley will be minimal.
I also think that Susan may garner a good chunk of the vote because of the testosterone laiden field. However, I still think this is Calley's race to lose.
I've heard Bailey went around to the other Barry Co. candidates asking them to drop out. Isn't it a bit too late Jim? He also wanted them to join him in condeming Right to Life because there was no Barry Co. rep on the endorsement board.
That's a huge windmill to tackle. Right to Life only picks a horse when someone in the field was not up to snuff. Question is-- who was it? I think such a condemnation would only hurt Bailey and anyone that joined him.
Fact is Barry Co. Right to Life isn't very organized. It's power lies within the two big churches in the county. I doubt they'd defy the State organization and say that Jim, Susan, etc. qualifies too.
Calley outlines the perfect strategy to win this or any open seat:
1. Start early.
2. Go door-to-door early.<
3. Secure your region/county's major players.
4. Kiss the butts of lobbyists in the year prior to the election.
5.Quit your job by May of the election year to campaign 24/7.
6. Pack the Right to Life endorsement board with your own people.
Trouble is, it will be 2012 and redistricting will have occured again and Barry Co. might be paired with a different area, maybe eastern Allegan.
I just posted what would have been a good response to this in another post. Here's a cut and paste since it makes sense here too:
Reynolds, without daring to speak on behalf of his campaign, is certainly not going to garner the nod from Right to Life. It may be they wanted to make sure he didn't win since he's the least friendly of the candidates toward their agenda but that would mean they saw him as such a threat they needed to stop him, which is entirely possible though a bit too conspiratorial when I believe in Occam's Razor- the most simple explanation is the one that is most likely to be true. In this case, Calley has been sucking up to Ionia Right to Life for years in preparation for this bid, the board was packed with people from his own district (and don't forget he's been chair of the Ionia GOP so he's surely got friends in high ((and low)) places), and he's got the money and charm to pull this off. Not to mention that in the Bailey-Newell race (if I recall correctly) Newell garnered the Right to Life nod even though Bailey was sufficiently pro-birth. If Bailey's pissy at not getting the endorsement he has only himself to blame since he had lots of time to lay the groundwork and could easily pack the board with his own children and gotten a unanimous vote.
While some are grousing that the Barry County camp is divided, I am pleased since it gives an opening to my pick, Brian Reynolds, to pull off a shoot the moon strategy which he is working beneath the radar and which I certainly won't divulge here. And yes, from what I've heard Bailey told the others to clear the field which only shows his massive ego when he couldn't even beat Gary Newell and then disappears and now expects to be crowned King of Barry County. The five way race with lots of candidates going after the same voting block could hand the race to a dark horse that goes after independent and moderate voters- and even Democratics who won't really have anything to vote for in the Democratic primary and can easily move over and vote the Republican ticket and pick the lesser of two evils (or even try to pick the weakest candidate for defeat in November if that's the way they choose to go- but that could be a risky strategy). The unions and the FOGLI (Friends of Gun Lake Indians) people could have a major effect if they choose to by coming out and voting for the candidate(s) who might be less openly hostile to their agenda, if not downright friendly.
I tell you, as much as I try to handicap this race (and I've been mentally preparing a prediction of the final tally which I will hopefully post in the next couple of weeks) the 5-way race has really got be going back and forth on who can grab enough votes to pull it out. I think it's going to be a tightly bunched group with Calley edging out the others- unless one of the Barry County crowd can pick up a major endorsement or similar silver bullet from the Ionia folks. Six weeks to go!
I wish I could believe in your 5-way race, shoot the moon strategy for Reynolds, but the odds are stacked against him. I don't see him doing the basic items associated with voter outreach.
If you look to a race where FOGLI/Gun Lake Tribe had influence look next door back in '02--88th District currently held by Fulton Sheen.
5-way race. Very similar to this, only there was no woman, one pro-casino candidate, and geography was a bit tighter.
Fulton had his signs up in April. Fulton financed on credit cards (wisdon of a financial planner), but also got a big boost from DeVos' education group (now defunct). Fulton was the only one to utilize the Right to Life list (everyone qualified).
VanVolkinburg (the casino candidate) built an early base too. He was also heavily endorsed by MEA. Since two candidates were from Holland area, they cancelled each other out.
In the end, Fulton's early work and name ID prevailed and it went like this:
Sheen 33%
VanVolkinburg 20%
Dewey (Holland) 17%
Kraai (Holland) 16%
Farnsworth 14%
I've talked to FOGLI folk and they are very wary to get into this race. They put a lot of heart and soul into Geiger & VanVolkinburg last time for naught. With two pro tribe candidates, Reynolds edge is gone. VanVolkinburg had secured FOGLI's endorsement in March. I haven't heard a peep from them on this race.
Here's my poll prediction:
Calley 30%
Vlietstra 20%
Bailey 20%
Reynolds 15%
Trombley 10%
Lower 4%
Doster 1%
Calley will run away with it. You have no one that really draws from his base, except Lower. Being the only woman, and coming from a populous area of the district I think Susan will tie Bailey for votes. Bailey's strength will come from those that remember him and his Barry connections. I wanted to go higher on Reynolds, but I thought Wade would go double digits. Both are competing for the same segment. On Doster and Lower, I may have gone a bit high, but they are on the ballot. I also hear Lower is working his base. This also could change depending on who gets MCRGO, NRA, and Farm Bureau. This is an educated guess based on past trends in the area-- +/- %4.
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