Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Follow the Leader Winner

On the 230th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, I want to talk about the choices we are scared to make...

“You’ve got a lotta nerve, sayin’ you’re my friend.
You just wanna be on the side that’s winnin.”

Bob Dylan, Positively 4th Street


One of the oldest political campaign tricks, the “bandwagon” effect, is something we learned about in our ninth-grade civics classes, along with “testimonials” and “glittering generalities.” Apparently a lot of us were sleeping when that chapter was studied. Still alive and even well today is the notion you’re wasting your vote unless you climb aboard the winning team express, the projected winner in the race. You’ve got to pick "the right candidate" and "back the winner." Frank Sinatra sang, to the tune of “High Hopes,” back on the 1960 campaign trail, “Everybody’s voting for Jack (Kennedy)... cause they know he’s on the right track.” This bandwagon effect is used to sucker you into thinking your guy is going to lose so why bother? It's a cheap psychological plot to get you to give up and give in.

I think voters should pick from their heart... and from their gut. They should pick the candidate they think can do the best job regardless of the deck stacked against them- in fact, I think it's all the more important when the system seems so heavily titled toward the rich and the powerful for the "little guys" to band together and take a stand. After all, It's not up to us to decide who's "going" to win. Let the pundits play that game, it's only up to us to pick who we want and let the chips fall where they may. I'm tired of people telling me that I have to go with one of the "approved" choices and that anything else is a waste of my vote. My vote is only wasted if I don't use it or I listen to others who try to talk me out of who I feel in my heart I should support.

This debate over "wasted" votes needs to be applied to the 87th House District Republican primary Aug. 8. The chatter seems to be that some candidates "don't have a chance." It's said that certain candidates haven't raised enough money from fat cat donors, that they don't look the part of slick politician or they haven't made enough back room deals with power players and PACs to stand a chance. Therefore, anyone supporting that candidate is doomed to failure and humiliation and their vote or money would be better used "backing a winner." This is yet more nonsense designed to get you to jump on the bandwagon of one the "chosen" candidates who are simply the guys willing to borrow the most money from the bank and grease enough palms and kiss enough babies to become part of the Sausage Machine in Lansing that churns out ever more putrid legislation that is slowly choking off your freedom and suffocating the democracy we were entrusted by our Founding Fathers to protect.

Now, let's pretend "Candidate A" really "doesn't have a chance of winning." In a secret ballot there is no way anyone will know who you voted for, so the chances you'll be publicly called on the carpet for "supporting the wrong guy" is nil. There's also little chance that your one vote is going to tip the balance for "Candidate B or C," so why not just go for who you'd like to represent you since you only get one chance to have your say- the winner will surely be declared in the Republican primary unless hell freezes over between August 9 and November 7. In the end, if enough people join you in voting with their heart, you may have helped elect the next State Rep. but if not, you certainly didn't "waste" your vote.

The candidate you or I support may end up losing, but that's not because it was pre-ordained by God or "fixed" in Lansing (or even Portland). It would be because a plurality of voters went for one of the other candidates in the race. So be it. But in a multi-candidate primary anything can happen and whoever wins will have surely gotten through without grabbing the majority of the vote so this is your best chance to influence who will be our next State Representative. Choose wisely but don't let anyone else tell you that person can't win so don't bother. Your vote is sacred and it belongs to no one else. On August 8 I will vote with my heart and with my gut — I will support the candidate I WANT to WIN. And if he loses, it won't be because I chickened out and went with the lemmings who flocked to the guy with the whitest teeth, the most expensive haircut or the deepest pockets.

The Founding Fathers didn't listen to the conventional wisdom that suggested no one dared to fight against the most powerful empire in the world. Surely, many of the Redcoats were the timid little weasels that infect our local politics who run around "backing the winner" so they can get their appointments and be "part of the winning team." Exactly 230 years ago this country was founded on the principle that sometimes enough is enough and you have to stand up and declare loudly that you're mad as hell and you're not going to take it anymore. I think it's time for all of us to stand up and jump off the bandwagon. I think it's time for some fireworks!

11 comments:

Boggsone said...

God Bless America!

Jay said...

I wish I could be positive. Yes, the possibilities are out there that any of the "Barry Bunch" could surprise all and pull the upset. History and trends paint a different picture.

Voters in a open primary reward those who have done the groundwork beforehand. Calley, love him or hate him, has done the groundwork.

Vlietstra put off things due to her pregnancy, Reynolds was waiting for some magical elves, Bailey was waiting for the courthouse circle to thrust him upon their shoulders and the rest got into it because it was fun (or to blackmail a municipality to up your pay in the case of Doster).

The name of the game here is organization and Calley has it. The others are balkanizing what is left. It may appear now that folks are joining the bandwagon. That's because Calley's groundwork is paying off and he's switching into 4th gear, leaving the rest in the dust.

Your well read readers understand what is going on, but we are in the minority.



Let me state this another way. Calley is securing his voters. Out of the pool of 12,000-15,000 likely voters. He's looking to secure 4,000. 2,000 will come from RtL right off the bat. 1,500 will come from his gun endorsements. and the rest will be part of the "bandwagon" effect. Through door-to door, through mail, through his other outlets-- Calley has secured these voters.

No other candidate has laid the groundwork to secure anywhere near the same amount of votes (we would have seen the fruits of their groundwork by now). Add Calley's geographic edge and the others are struggling up the mountain.

Can I be wong? I hope so. I am willing to put $100 on the order I predicted earlier on here. If someone else gets top spot other than Calley, that money will go to Pol's favorite non-profit charity. I'll even keep the money at Hastings City Bank for good measure.

Very impassioned speech Pol. If it were true in this case, I'd agree with you. However, Calley has outworked and out hussled the lot. If Calley doesn't try to pick up prostitutes, run over mailboxes, or get caught DUI with a woman who's not his wife, he'll be ok.

I wish I was wrong, but my gut and my head say otherwise. I won't be voting for Calley, but alas I'll be the vocal minority.

Boggsone said...

Jay: You seem to be pushing people towards Calley. I have been a little suspicious of just who you might be representing, if anyone. You have alot of stats and opinions that seem to me to be from someone well versed and studied, possibly employed, by the typical politicians. Coming across as a "Joe Sixpack", but predicting doom, possibly swaying people to vote the Calley way cause he's going to win anyway. Could you be Calley himself?

If not, why can't we just think positive and vote for our candidate.

You're welcome to your opinion, of course, but very skeptical? Might be a little psychology being used on us country bumkins!

Pol Watcher said...

Nah. I just think Jay is a guy who been around long enough to know that good guys don't win especially when they don't have big money, good signs, big time endorsements, etc. I'm sure he's right, but I'm still fighting because that all I can do!

Some people have told me they think this blog had an effect on the Hastings School Board race- a local election with no big issues and yet the incumbent lost to two challengers. I can't say for certain but I do wonder what the effect of my posts on the race were, if any. It is because of this that I will hold out hope to the bitter end that I can make a difference- that YOU can make a difference. The people are angry and if they know that someone out there gets that then that person has a chance to win. All I can do is try to get the word out to people that we DO have a CHOICE this time!

About 100 people visit this site every day (when I started it I thought I'd be lucky to get 10 in a week). We had 3,000 visitors last month (the stat counter times out after a certain point so many of those were not "unique" visitors). People are reading this site and hearing about it second hand and it's having an effect! Notice how guys like "Mark Trompweiler" try to "kill the messenger" by trying to "out" me so he can then belittle the message by saying "oh, that's just ____ and everybody know's they're crazy." If this site wasn't working these guys wouldn't be scared, but I've heard even Calley is starting to worry about his chances. I know Bailey was mad as hell when I called him out. Even if the "golden boy" or "the boss" ends up winning we will have done our best to beat them and at least made it closer than it would have been.

Democracy is a tug of war and you only lose when you quit pulling on the rope...

Pol Watcher said...

Nah. I just think Jay is a guy who been around long enough to know that good guys don't win especially when they don't have big money, good signs, big time endorsements, etc. I'm sure he's right, but I'm still fighting because that all I can do!

Some people have told me they think this blog had an effect on the Hastings School Board race- a local election with no big issues and yet the incumbent lost to two challengers. I can't say for certain but I do wonder what the effect of my posts on the race were, if any. It is because of this that I will hold out hope to the bitter end that I can make a difference- that YOU can make a difference. The people are angry and if they know that someone out there gets that then that person has a chance to win. All I can do is try to get the word out to people that we DO have a CHOICE this time!

About 100 people visit this site every day (when I started it I thought I'd be lucky to get 10 in a week). We had 3,000 visitors last month (the stat counter times out after a certain point so many of those were not "unique" visitors). People are reading this site and hearing about it second hand and it's having an effect! Notice how guys like "Mark Trompweiler" try to "kill the messenger" by trying to "out" me so he can then belittle the message by saying "oh, that's just ____ and everybody know's they're crazy." If this site wasn't working these guys wouldn't be scared, but I've heard even Calley is starting to worry about his chances. I know Bailey was mad as hell when I called him out. Even if the "golden boy" or "the boss" ends up winning we will have done our best to beat them and at least made it closer than it would have been.

Democracy is a tug of war and you only lose when you quit pulling on the rope...

Pol Watcher said...

Nah. I just think Jay is a guy who been around long enough to know that good guys don't win especially when they don't have big money, good signs, big time endorsements, etc. I'm sure he's right, but I'm still fighting because that all I can do!

Some people have told me they think this blog had an effect on the Hastings School Board race- a local election with no big issues and yet the incumbent lost to two challengers. I can't say for certain but I do wonder what the effect of my posts on the race were, if any. It is because of this that I will hold out hope to the bitter end that I can make a difference- that YOU can make a difference. The people are angry and if they know that someone out there gets that then that person has a chance to win. All I can do is try to get the word out to people that we DO have a CHOICE this time!

About 100 people visit this site every day (when I started it I thought I'd be lucky to get 10 in a week). We had 3,000 visitors last month (the stat counter times out after a certain point so many of those were not "unique" visitors). People are reading this site and hearing about it second hand and it's having an effect! Notice how guys like "Mark Trompweiler" try to "kill the messenger" by trying to "out" me so he can then belittle the message by saying "oh, that's just ____ and everybody know's they're crazy." If this site wasn't working these guys wouldn't be scared, but I've heard even Calley is starting to worry about his chances. I know Bailey was mad as hell when I called him out. Even if the "golden boy" or "the boss" ends up winning we will have done our best to beat them and at least made it closer than it would have been.

Democracy is a tug of war and you only lose when you quit pulling on the rope...

Jay said...

I am not employed, nor have I ever volunteered for the Calley campaign. I was approached by folks to work for Brian Reynolds (I turned them down). I want people to vote for ABC-Anyone But Calley. I will be voting that way come Aug. 8.

I am also frustrated that no one among the Barry Bunch laid any groundwork.

I want to be proved wrong on how this race is tracking. I want someone other than Calley to win this thing.

I wish I could see the senarios you and Pol predict, but they haven't happened in the West MI region in over 30 years.

I encourage anyone to vote for the person who they think will do the best job in Lansing. I ask them not to be swayed by the endorsements of special interests in Lansing, but vote their conscience.

Deep down I am a "Mr. Smith" at heart, but my eyes have seen too many of these type of races to get my hopes up.

agnosticrat said...

I have a couple conservative friends that will be showing up at the polls for one reason only. To turn down the millage requests.They are really turned off by the way things are going nationally, and wouldn't show if they didn't have the millage to prod them. For that reason (and to see the look on their faces) I am going to do the best I can to convince my friends and family to vote for Reynolds. This is the kind of swing vote that could turn things around for the Barry Bunch. The more Calley is disclosed as part of the system, the worse it could be for him.
The message has some time to get out. Maybe some westmichiganpolitics lawn signs are the ticket!

"Come on kids!, My dads got a barn, and we can put a show on there!"-Mickey Rooney?

Jay said...

Looks like Bailey is reading the blog as evidenced by his recent Banner ad...

He's all over the map on strategy, I don't think he has a plan.
------------------------------

1 hr isn't going to be long enough for a candidate forum on the radio, especially if a) David Youngs is the moderator and b) the usual suspects hog the mic. I guess WBCH didn't want it too long, afraid they lose sponsors/listeners.

agnosticrat said...

Aw heck, they can have the sponsors bleed over the programming as usual!

Jay said...

Did you see the July 5th article in the GR Press on RtL influencing elections? Thought the case could be made stronger here.GR Press call Bailey! Ha.